Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination.
And, until at least May 31 and perhaps longer, Hillary Clinton’s campaign plans to dispute it.
It’s a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race.
The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates—a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, insists the winner will need 2,209 to cinch the nomination—a tally that includes Florida and Michigan.
“We don’t accept 2,025. It is not the real number because that does not include Florida and Michigan,” said Howard Wolfson, one of Clinton’s two chief strategists. “It’s a phony number.”
Wolfson said they intend to contest the DNC’s 2,025 number “every day,” as well as any declaration of victory made by Obama based upon that number, because it does not include Florida and Michigan.
In January, Clinton won both states by wide margins when Obama did not actively contest them. The two states were stripped of their delegates for holding early primaries not sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee.
Obama will not reach the 2,025 magic number on May 20. Rather, on that date he is all but certain to hit a different threshold—1,627 pledged delegates, which would constitute a winning majority among the 3,253 total pledged delegates if Florida and Michigan are not included.
“On May 20 we’re going to declare victory,” said an Obama senior advisor who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, adding that after those contests they will be “the ones with the most pledged delegates and the most popular votes.”
While the nature of that declaration of victory is “still developing,” in the advisor’s words, the Obama campaign contends that the winner of a majority of pledged delegates should be the party nominee.
“Senator Obama, our campaign and our supporters believe pledged delegates is the most legitimate metric for determining how this race has unfolded,” wrote Obama campaign manager David Plouffe Wednesday in a memo to superdelegates. “It is simply the ratification of the DNC rules - your rules - which we built this campaign and our strategy around.”
But the Clinton campaign’s insistence on counting Florida and Michigan would alter not only the overall delegate math, but the pledged delegate math as well. Because if the two states are included in the count, the total number of pledged delegates would rise from 3,253 to 3,566—which means the magic number for a majority rises to 1,784, not 1,627 as the Obama campaign asserts.
By hewing to that interpretation, the Clinton campaign would thus be able to raise doubts about a May 20 declaration of victory by Obama.
Since the earliest possible resolution of the Florida/Michigan dispute is May 31, when the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee will meet in Washington to address petitions from Michigan and Florida DNC members, the 11-day period between the May 20 primaries and the RBC meeting could produce a chaotic stretch where Obama claims to be the party nominee while Clinton argues otherwise.
Already, the two campaigns are gearing up for the battle.
“With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days,” wrote Plouffe in his memo. “While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors.”
“You can declare mission accomplished but that doesn’t mean that the mission has actually been accomplished,” Wolfson said.
Avi Zenilman contributed to this report
Copyright © 2008 Capitol News Company, LLC | Distributed by Noofangle Media
8 responses so far ↓
1 Alejandro // May 8, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Finally, lets end this. Time to focus on the November election. I’m tired of hearing about Obama leading in the votes and Hillary fighting back. How can Hillary call for the Florida and Michigan votes to count when she and Obama agreed that they wound not? Doesn’t make sense to me. I mean, it would be nice to have everyone’s vote count but you can’t agree to something and then later go against what you said.
Oh, and Hillary, watch out for sniper fire. I hear that you’re always… wait, what? Oh, that didn’t happen?… ok.
2 marvin moorefield // May 8, 2008 at 4:09 pm
that aboy obama go man go run against john McCain we need an leader whom does not lie.
3 Hillary // May 8, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Over my cold, dead body!!!
4 J-STIZLE // May 8, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Its about time. Let the REAL presidential campaign begin. The ReThuglicans have screwed up America so badly ….. that right now … Fidel Castro could probably run for President of the United States ….. and WIN !!!!!
5 dar // May 9, 2008 at 5:31 am
Fine Superdelegates, Once again, you have influenced this election. I am furious. Been a Dem all of my life and a contributor and volunteer. I just won’t vote at all. (not because Hillary didn’t win, but because this election is absolutely been tampered with)
6 dar // May 9, 2008 at 5:35 am
Oh, I do have one possibility if I feel it is unpatriotic to withold a vote. I will write in the name of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Dems consider this, but we would lose election to Repubs unless there is a ground swell where everyone voted for Hillary and encouraged others to do the same. Dem Party needs to understand how angry we are about Superdelegates and the way rules were made about the primaries. Every vote in this country should count. If it had, George Bush would not have been President.
7 S. Robinson // May 9, 2008 at 12:59 pm
J-STIZLE—already happened. Hitler ran for president, and stole the elections back a few years ago, and now the American Hitler bush is sitting in the Oval office, telling folks how the Constitution is nothing but a piece of paper, spying on Americans, and all other things that despotic nut cases do. I would’ve voted for Stalin rather than have this two-faced ignorant chimp take down the country in the manner that he has! And now, perhaps the politics of the Democratic party can come into play and we can have our democracy back………..from WHOMEVER, as long as it’s a Dem at the helm!
8 Democratic // May 9, 2008 at 4:57 pm
I am alarmed that the US is not willing to give a credible, viable Woman any chance to do the Job in the 21st Century of our history.
Desperate times calls for desperate measures is certainly not the ticket to “CHANGE” with a young charming inexperience candidate.
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