By: Josh Kraushaar

Just two months ago, Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.) was the toast of the Democratic Caucus after winning a Republican-held seat in the special election to succeed veteran Rep. Richard Baker.

Not only did Cazayoux run surprisingly well in the conservative-minded Baton Rouge-based district, he overcame a Republican spending barrage of more than $1 million, an effort so impressive that it seemed to present a model for how congressional Democratic candidates could compete effectively in the South.

Yet now, by virtue of circumstances largely out of his control, Cazayoux suddenly appears to be hanging onto his seat by a thread. Thanks to recent developments that include a new Republican nominee and the appearance of a credible third-party candidate, his bid for a full term in November is considerably more complicated.

The Cazayoux saga began when the GOP’s controversial special election nominee, former state legislator Woody Jenkins, announced last week that he would not run again in November. His decision cleared the field for a new Republican recruit, state Sen. Bill Cassidy, whom GOP officials view much more favorably.

Jenkins’ unstinting socially conservative positions made him a highly divisive figure, and he carried unusually high unfavorable ratings for a first-time House candidate. His lackluster campaign purchased only a minimal amount of locally produced television ads, forcing both the National Republican Congressional Committee and its conservative ally, Freedom’s Watch, to spend millions attacking Cazayoux on Jenkins’ behalf.

By contrast, Cassidy has a profile that Republicans believe is tailor-made for the 6th District. A physician with just over a year of legislative experience under his belt, he lacks a laundry list of votes for Democrats to scrutinize. And he voted against recent pay-raise legislation that has been politically toxic for many local politicians.

Already, Cassidy has put together an experienced team of consultants, and he appears to have the apparatus to run a well-organized and well-funded campaign. 

But Cassidy is not the real threat to Cazayoux. Rather, it is state Rep. Michael Jackson, a leading African-American legislator who filed to run against Cazayoux as an independent Democrat just before the filing deadline last Friday.

Jackson ran unsuccessfully in the March Democratic primary — losing 57 percent to 43 percent — but carried his home base in East Baton Rouge Parish. He won more than 90 percent of the vote in some of the district’s heavily black precincts, votes that normally would go to Cazayoux in a general election.

But now Democrats privately acknowledge that, with Jackson in the race, Cazayoux’s path to victory is greatly complicated. About half the Democratic vote in the district is African-American, making it difficult for Cazayoux to win reelection without getting overwhelming support from the district’s African-American base.

“This is a spoiler candidacy,” said one Democratic operative with experience working on Louisiana campaigns. “It’s a mess.

There’s no doubt about it.”

Cazayoux spokeswoman Katie Nee said that the higher turnout in the presidential race, compared with a special election, would mute the impact of Jackson’s candidacy. She argued that many African-American voters will not be familiar with Jackson and will instead vote straight-ticket Democratic ballots. Jackson will be running as an independent.

“It’s no secret, it adds to our challenge, but we still feel very confident Don’s going to get reelected,” Nee said. “We’re going to have the full support of the party, and we’re going to benefit from an excited Democratic turnout.”

Jackson’s decision came as a surprise to many statewide Democrats. He ran a civil campaign against Cazayoux in the primary, barely criticizing his legislative colleague. He spent just $10,000 on the campaign, not enough to finance a sophisticated operation. And, according to the operative, Jackson was strongly considering joining Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign as his Louisiana state director.

“It makes no sense for him to be in this. Jackson and Cazayoux are friends,” said the operative. “Everyone was surprised.”

One possible factor, some Democrats speculated, is the involvement of Lane Grigsby, a wealthy construction company owner who has been active on behalf of Republicans in many Louisiana campaigns. He spent more than $100,000 in ads attacking Cazayoux during the special election — but also contributed the maximum $2,300 to Jackson’s Democratic primary campaign.

Another factor, according to several Democratic sources, is that Jackson felt that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had been tacitly backing Cazayoux during the primary and he, along with other local African-American elected officials, wanted to send a message against the establishment.

The DCCC backed Cazayoux when he was the only Democrat running against Baker, but after Baker retired, the DCCC took a neutral stance in the primary.

Jackson, who did not return numerous calls from Politico, told The Times-Picayune newspaper that he does not simply want to once again take on the national party’s chosen candidate in a primary.

“I’m not trying to hide the ball. I’m not trying to confuse voters,” Jackson said, explaining that he is still a Democrat and would caucus with Democrats in Congress. “Politics is politics. It is what it is.”

The statewide Democratic Party and the DCCC reiterated their support for Cazayoux after Jackson entered the November race. And the DCCC announced last Friday — before Jackson’s filing — that it had reserved $723,000 in advertising time this fall on Cazayoux’s behalf.

Republicans sounded a newly confident note about picking up a seat that the party lost in embarrassing fashion in May.

“The dynamics of this race seem to have dramatically changed,” said NRCC spokesman Ken Spain. “Not only do Democrats appear to be divided, but Don Cazayoux will have to defend his quickly acquired record of defending the status quo in Washington as he faces off with a formidable candidate in Bill Cassidy.”

Cazayoux ended the special election with just $26,000 cash on hand, but his campaign expects to “be in good shape” financially when it releases the second-quarter fundraising reports due tomorrow.

“We hit the ground running after the special, and we’ll have all the resources we need,” Nee said.

The suburban Baton Rouge district delivered 59 percent of the vote to President Bush in 2004. The district, however, also voted for Bill Clinton twice and has more registered Democrats than Republicans. But Democratic successes here have been based on turning out the district’s sizable African-American vote, and Jackson’s candidacy now complicates that formula.

In 2004, Louisiana Republicans also benefited from a racially divided Democratic Party across the state in the 7th District. There, Rep. Charles Boustany (R-La.) won election in part because a leading African-American candidate, Don Cravins, declined to endorse the eventual Democratic nominee. Ironically, Cravins’ son is now the likely Democratic nominee against Boustany and is viewed as one of the party’s leading recruits.

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