By: Josh Kraushaar

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore has barely begun his campaign for the Senate, but it’s almost impossible to find anyone in statewide Republican circles — outside of his closest allies — who thinks he can actually win.

Despite having a résumé that most candidates would die for — former governor, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, president of a homeland security think tank and briefly a presidential candidate — Gilmore has become the laughingstock of this year’s crop of  GOP Senate recruits.  

He’s been consistently trailing his Democratic opponent, Mark Warner, who succeeded him as governor, in most public polls by well over 20 points — even though he is running in a state that has voted Republican at the presidential level since 1964. 

“It would take a major mistake on Warner’s part to give Gilmore a chance here,” said Cook Political Report Senate analyst Jennifer Duffy, who called Gilmore’s chances of winning miniscule. “The only way he’d win is if Warner has a major misstep, and he’s way too disciplined to have a macaca moment.”

Gilmore’s fundraising numbers have been anemic. He ended June with just $117,000 in his campaign account, a number dwarfed by Warner’s $5.1 million cash on hand. Gilmore’s paltry total is not even close to the amount of money necessary to get his message out in the expensive television markets of Northern Virginia, Richmond and Tidewater.

Gilmore raised just $480,000 in the second quarter of fundraising — a total surpassed even by many House candidates who don’t have to raise as much money to be viable. 

And despite facing lackluster opposition for the Republican nomination, he barely inched past a little-known, underfunded socially conservative state legislator, state Del. Bob Marshall, at the nominating convention. Marshall lost the delegate vote by less than a percentage point.

“No one took [Marshall] seriously, including a lot of our supporters, and they didn’t bother to show up because they didn’t believe he could win,” said Gilmore strategist Boyd Marcus.

“Once we knew we had filed more delegates than he did, we became overconfident.”

But this is not a campaign that can afford to be overconfident.

On paper, the Old Dominion Senate seat is one that Republicans should have more than a fighting chance to keep. A central battleground in this year’s presidential contest, it still has healthy swaths of Republican strongholds, from the military-heavy Tidewater to the suburbs of Richmond and out to the southwestern corner of the state in the heart of Appalachia.  

The Senate seat itself, currently held by retiring Republican Sen. John Warner, has been held by the GOP since 1973.

Gilmore once had a serious national profile after finishing his term as governor in 2002. He won election on a popular promise to phase out the car tax, and he even carried Northern Virginia’s suburban jurisdictions, such as Fairfax and Prince William counties, which have since been trending in a Democratic direction.

And he parlayed his governorship into a stint at the Republican National Committee — a job that started Gilmore’s downward spiral in GOP circles.

As RNC chairman, Gilmore clashed with the Bush White House, particularly with former chief political strategist Karl Rove, who made little secret of his low regard for Gilmore’s performance in the post.

Republicans also point to Gilmore’s quixotic campaign for president, which puzzled even some of his close supporters, as a reason for his descent into the political doldrums. He was the first candidate to withdraw from the 2008 contest after having no effect on the race, except for several debate appearances.

“Whoever advised him to run for president should be shot,” said a Virginia GOP operative with ties to Gilmore.

Several Virginia Republicans argue that Gilmore has always been ill-equipped to run a federal campaign and expand his fundraising beyond his statewide base. His presidential campaign may have tapped out his few reliable donors.

“He doesn’t have a fundraising base much outside of Virginia, and I don’t think people want to invest in a race whose candidacy they don’t think will be successful,” Duffy said.

Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) added that Gilmore has lost the support of the state’s business community — particularly in Northern Virginia, a traditionally Republican constituency that is squarely behind Mark Warner this year. Davis was planning to run for the Senate seat but backed out when the state party decided to choose its nominee through a convention.

“Jim felt that this is his year, and I think he’s forgotten that Northern Virginia is a third of the state,” Davis said. “Although Jim carried it when he ran for governor, the themes he ran on at that point are now stale, and it’s going to be a difficult, difficult race for him, particularly with the money disadvantage he’s got.”

Davis’ comments echo the widespread concerns — both public and private — among Republicans across the commonwealth about Gilmore’s ability to run a competitive campaign.

And some of it comes down to pure personality.

“He can come across as very arrogant. Here’s a guy with a great story, he was the governor, and he walks around with a chip on his shoulder,” said the Virginia operative. “He’s not warm and fuzzy, and he doesn’t inspire.”

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