Politico

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s sudden announcement Friday that she will resign at the end of July came as a complete shock to the Alaska political establishment. The choreography suggested that was by design.

Whatever other motivations she had, by giving top Republicans in Alaska and Washington virtually no warning of her plans, Palin managed to ensure that her ally and preferred successor, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, got a significant head start on the 2010 governor’s race while the rest of the prospective Democratic and GOP candidates were left scrambling to react to her stunning decision.

Rumors that Palin would not seek reelection in 2010 have been swirling in state GOP circles for months, but few Republicans, if any, thought the governor would abruptly resign her post.

Alaska Republicans who spoke with POLITICO said they were flabbergasted by her resignation. State GOP Chairman Randy Ruedrich said he was shocked by the “timing and the totality of the decision.”

Ruedrich had spoken with Palin previously about her reelection plans and urged the governor to make her decision before the first of October in order to provide the many Republicans eyeing a potential run enough time to organize their campaigns.

Ruedrich told POLITICO he was not surprised that she declined to run for a second term, but “I didn’t think she would step down.”

Parnell, however, was informed of Palin’s plans on Wednesday evening. And he appeared with Palin at her Wasilla home Friday, where she mentioned him three times in her announcement speech and concluded her remarks by saying the state would be “in the capable hands of our Lieutenant Governor, Sean Parnell.”

Later in the day, Palin’s Twitter feed told followers to “Check out Lt. Gov. Parnell’s response re: my announcement today” and linked to Parnell’s prepared remarks.

Parnell, a former state legislator who was elected on a ticket with Palin in 2006, was effusive in his praise for the outgoing governor.

“You have been a strong leader for our state, you’ve inspired a nation, and you’ve ignited the fire of real hope around the world,” he said. “I profoundly respect your decision for I know the depth of character and integrity from which it springs. Rare, indeed, are such selfless acts seen in the public arena.”

“I believe history will look back on Sarah Palin as one of Alaska’s great gifts to all peoples,” he concluded. “You have served honorably, Governor. God bless you.”

A source close to Palin said the governor’s team called a number of state and national party officials prior to Palin’s announcement but didn’t get through to some and talked to others either during or after the announcement. Still, a former Palin staffer who remains involved in Alaska politics said the governor’s resignation hit the state like a “bombshell.”

“It’s a state holiday,” the former staffer pointed out. “This totally caught everyone off guard.”

In a reflection of Palin’s estrangement from the state GOP establishment, some Republicans had sharp reactions to the news.

“I am deeply disappointed that the governor has decided to abandon the state and her constituents before her term has concluded,” said Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, whose father, former Gov. Frank Murkowski, was defeated by Palin in the 2006 GOP primary.

Former Republican state legislator Andrew Halcro, who ran against Palin in the 2006 governor’s race as an independent, said he was “struck by the abruptness, the lack of logical reasoning and the timing.”

“One thing Sarah Palin has never done is quit, she’s a fighter, she’s a scrapper,” said Halcro, who is considering running for governor as a Republican in 2010.

“This doesn’t make a damn bit of political sense to me,” he said. “Regardless of what you think or what you think her ambitions are, she is now a quitter.”

As a result of Palin’s announcement, Republicans who had been quietly putting out feelers in preparation for the possibility she might not run again are now accelerating their campaign timetables.

Former state House Speaker John Harris, who did not get a heads up from Palin’s staff, will file papers announcing his bid on Monday. Other Republicans, including former state Rep. Ralph Samuels, former state Sen. Ralph Seekins, and former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman are also expected to announce bids shortly.

Nick Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, said in a statement that despite the unexpected move, the overall political equation remains the same in Republican-oriented Alaska.

“While we regret the news announced by Governor Palin today, Alaska will continue to have a Republican governor through 2010 and we are confident the state will elect a Republican in next year’s election,” Ayers said.

Palin’s July 26 exit increases the odds that Parnell, whom few expected to run prior to her announcement, will be that Republican. He now has more than a full year to serve as the incumbent governor in advance of the August 2010 GOP primary.

Standing next to Palin after her announcement, Parnell did not say whether he would seek a full term, but he sounded broad themes that some Alaskans took as a sign that he intends to run.

“I came into office believing and still strongly believe that the power, rights, and responsibilities of our government belong to the people. Alaskans can expect me to focus on positioning Alaska for economic growth by creating legacy opportunities for our people and future generations,” Parnell said.

“My top priority is to get a gasline,” he continued. “I will continue the course set by the governor that has produced such forward progress these past two years. I will continue to support and promote responsible resource development and energy development of all kinds for Alaskans.”

Ruedrich said the language “indicates that he will run, and I’m not surprised by that.”

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bob Poe said Parnell’s head start will give him an advantage in a crowded field.

“He above all others has just been waiting to see what Governor Palin was going to do,” Poe said. “Basic political calculus says he’ll have a year to campaign on and that should help him.”

Poe said that while he was not particularly surprised that Palin declined to seek reelection, he was “shocked” that she would resign.

“You gotta wonder what’s behind that,” he said. “I think the story is unfolding.”

“She’d been out on this vice presidential campaign and then when she came back she’d already moved on from Alaska,” he added, echoing an often repeated line about the governor in state political circles since the end of the 2008 campaign.

Palin indicated in her remarks Friday that she intends to be a voice on both the state and national stages.

“I will support others who seek to serve, in or out of office, for the right reasons, and I don’t care what party they’re in or no party at all,” she said. “Inside Alaska – or Outside Alaska.”

Meg Stapleton, Palin’s spokeswoman and one of her closest advisors, told POLITICO that the governor “knows her value. She knows what she believes. And she wants to participate in the broad discussions.”

“This is seriously a fighting move,” Stapleton said. “It’s a liberating feeling…she can’t get out of there soon enough.”

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After U.S. troops moved out of Iraqi cities this past week, top administration and defense officials head to the Sunday talk shows to map out the next steps in the Middle East.

Vice President Joe Biden appears on ABC’s "This Week" while Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, headlines CBS’s "Face the Nation," "Fox News Sunday" and CNN’s "State of the Union."

On CBS, Mullen will be joined by Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) And on Fox, Mullen is followed by House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio.).

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell and Queen Noor of Jordan meanwhile are with Mullen on CNN.

White House economic advisor Austan Goolsbee will be on C-SPAN’s "Newsmakers" where he will take questions from Ceci Connolly of the Washington Post and Laura Meckler of the Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile Bloomberg’s Al Hunt lands Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) for "Political Capital."

And NBC’s "Meet the Press" is off this week so the network can cover the men’s final at Wimbledon.

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[This award-winning column by Roger Simon was written on July 4, 1976, and has been reprinted every year since.]

I have done some pretty awful things in the name of journalism. I have rushed up to interview mothers who have lost children, husbands who have lost wives, families shattered by a variety of emotional and physical calamities.

All reporters do these things. We wear a protective cloak of professional indifference while we write the names and ages and addresses in our notebooks. The deed is done quickly and quickly forgotten.

But I am going to have a hard time forgetting a long, cinder-block corridor in a small Wisconsin town that led to a bare, large room where eight girls sat on folding chairs facing a television set.

No accident had befallen these girls. No one had died or gone to jail or been shot. What had happened to them, instead, is just about the worst thing that can happen to a person in this country.

They had failed. They had wanted to be Miss America and now they never would be.

I had spent three days in Oshkosh, Wis., talking to the girls entered in the Miss Wisconsin Pageant, the final step before Atlantic City, where the winner would meet fame, fortune and Bert Parks.

I had come to do a magazine article on the American Dream and I saw the contestants go through endless hours of walking up and down a stage wearing evening gowns and bathing suits, trying not to wobble on high heels while the same thoughts ran through their heads: "What if I trip? What if I faint? What if I throw up?”

Their workdays were 18 hours long. And wherever they went, they smiled.

But on the last night, the smiling stopped. The names of the finalists were read and the eight losers ran offstage and were lead to a room.

I walked past the door to that room three or four times before I could make myself go in. They swiveled on their chairs to look at me.

I had gotten to know them by the names of the Wisconsin towns they represented, and that is the way I think of them still.

Miss Watertown, who had the brightest smile and the cheeriest outlook during the contest, spoke one of the two thoughts that were dominating each of their minds.

“I just feel bad for my town,” she said, fiddling with the hem of her gown. “I feel I let them down. I feel I let all the people down.”

Miss Sheboygan, the girl I secretly had been rooting for, spoke the second thought. “I don’t know how I will face the people who came here to see me,” she said.

I wish I could have told them then what I feel now. That they had branded themselves as failures in a nation whose national religion is success. They were true dreamers of the American Dream and now they were paying for it. And it is ironic, considering our nation’s history, that this should be true.

America was a country founded by failures who could not get along in the Old World and who came to a wilderness because there was simply no place else to go.

America was a country settled by failures — pioneers who could not adjust to the crowded life of the Eastern Seaboard and who went West because there was no place else for them.

America was a country built by failures — men and women who never attained the dream of owning their own business and being their own boss. Men and women whose lives were ruled by the alarm clock in the morning and the factory whistle in the evening.

Years and years of history books have taught us that America was shaped by the great deeds of great men and women. It was not. America was shaped by the great deeds of ordinary men and women.

On the Fourth of July 1969, at the height of the Vietnam War, I refused to stand up for the playing of the national anthem.

I didn’t know then what I have learned since. That America always has been better than its government, that its people have always been more decent than their presidents, and that the strength and greatness of this nation lies in them, the men and women who are not great and who never will be.

So on this Fourth of July — for Miss Watertown and Miss Sheboygan and for all the other glorious failures who have made and sustained this country — on this day, I stand for them.

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In remarks on the Fourth of July holiday, President Barack Obama said Americans needed to "summon the same spirit that inhabited Independence Hall 233 years ago today," and tackle – not defer – the major problems facing the nation.

"We are facing an array of challenges on a scale unseen in our time," Obama said Saturday in his weekly radio and Internet address. "We are waging two wars. We are battling a deep recession. And our economy – and our nation itself – are endangered by festering problems we have kicked down the road for far too long: spiraling health care costs; inadequate schools; and a dependence on foreign oil. Meeting these extraordinary challenges will require an extraordinary effort on the part of every American. And that is an effort we cannot defer any longer."

Echoing a theme he pressed during his inauguration, Obama drew parallels between the country’s triumph over past struggles, such as the Depression and World War II, and its ability to confront the current set of challenges.

He made the argument as he heads into a critical, five-week period in which Congress is expected to complete work on a health care reform bill. Republicans and some Democrats have argued that Obama is trying to do too much too quickly by telling Congress that he wants action this year on health care, immigration, energy, and financial regulation, among other things.

"These naysayers have short memories," Obama said. "They forget that we, as a people, did not get here by standing pat in a time of change. We did not get here by doing what was easy. That is not how a cluster of 13 colonies became the United States of America."

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Sarah Palin’s jaw-dropping announcement that she is quitting her job as Alaska governor before finishing even her first term has divided Republican ranks and the wider political community in a very familiar fashion.

Many establishment GOP operatives and political commentators of various stripes were withering, both about the decision and the way she announced it—in a jittery, hyperkinetic news conference that rambled between self-congratulation and bitter accusations at the foes she says are eager to destroy her.

The performance, by these lights, adds credence to the claims of some associates that Palin—burned by the intense scrutiny on her and the crossfire that swirls around her—is so fed up that she’s ready to get out of elective politics. Even if it’s only the small stage of Alaska politics she hopes to escape, skeptics say Friday’s events also diminished and perhaps even demolished what was left of her viability as a 2012 presidential candiate.

But her defenders believed an unorthodox move, even if risky, has a clear logic and may only further increase her standing with conservatives who don’t care what establishment figures in or out of the GOP think. Leaving the governor’s office at the end of this month leaves her free to travel the country, command large speaking fees, and begin the process of rallying her devotees without pesky home-state opponents criticizing every move.

These varied reactions were an echo of the debates that have followed Palin every step since her nomination as John McCain’s running mate ten months ago—a surprise that turned out to be just the first of many surprises served up by one of the most colorful and polarizing American political figures in a generation.

At the heart of these conflicting interpretations, say people close to Palin, is a woman who is herself deeply conflicted about her brief past in national politics and how to leverage her sudden fame for the future.

Some of her trusted outside advisers were not informed of her plans to suddenly resign from office until today – they thought she was only to announce she would not run for re-election.

Fred Malek, a longtime Republican fundraiser and Palin ally, played host to the governor and her husband, Todd, less than a month again in Washington and said it was “so clear to me that she was terribly unhappy with the position she was in and the role she was playing.”

He didn’t learn of Palin’s decision until he got a phone call from the governor this morning, when she cited the pressures of a job that had become consumed with FOIA requests and ethics investigations and the demands it taken on her family and national political prospects.

Another prominent GOP source who is close to Palin, who also had no inkling of Palin’s decision to quit until today, said: “Things had piled up pretty steep on her.”

Meg Stapleton, Palin’s Alaska-based spokesperson, called it “a fighting move.”

But even Stapleton acknowledged that the job Palin said she loved during the press conference had become a drag

“It’s a liberating feeling…she can’t get out of there soon enough,” said Stapleton.

But liberation comes at a potentially steep price. These include brutal reviews from many Republicans, who believe that quitting mid-term in the fashion she did amounts to political suicide.

“There is just no good way to say quitting has made her more qualified to run for higher office,” said veteran GOP pollster Glen Bolger.

Until Friday, after all, Stapleton and others close to Palin had been saying for months that the governor would take an Alaska-first approach and eschew national affairs. The hope was to compile more of a record and develop more policy authority.

“I think Sarah Palin is on the verge of becoming the Miami Vice of American politics: Something a lot of people once thought was cool and then 20 years later look back, shake their heads and just kind of laugh,” quipped Republican media consultant Todd Harris.

Even those who were less critical of her choice were taken aback by Palin’s rambling, hard-to-follow news conference by the side of a lake outside her home. The performance had shades of Richard Nixon’s “You won’t have Dick Nixon to kick around anymore” news promise in 1962, as well as Mark Sanford’s bizarre exercise in self-revelation just last month.

Palin mixed analogies to herself as a basketball player who knows “when it’s time to pass the ball” with bitter commentary against “political operatives [who] descended on Alaska—digging for dirt” as part of a “superficial, wasteful political bloodsport.”

“Palin is at her best when she’s being folksy but there is no way to be folksy when you’re resigning as governor,” said veteran GOP strategist Dan Schnur.

She portrayed her resignation as a selfless choice done for the good of Alaskans.She said they will now be free of the expensive and distracting—and she said bogus—ethics inquiries generated by her new prominence. “Some Alaskans, maybe they don’t mind wasting public dollars and state time, but I do,” she said.

But some believe Palin, for all the loose and improvisational feel of her news conference, was making a calculated guess that she is now bigger than Alaska’s small and remote political stage can handle.

With a recent book deal and ability for paid speaking engagements giving her great financial freedom, reasoned GOP communications strategist Carl Forti, “If she wants to run for national office it makes sense to get out of Alaska and around the lower 48. Resigning makes that possible.”

Malek and some of her other outside advisers expressed skepticism that she would run for president in 2012, but others saw in the move today the beginnings of a national campaign.

“She’s now made sure that she is entirely a movement candidate,” said veteran Democratic strategist Bob Shrum. “She brings no real experience to the table at all, but now this frees her up to carve out her own Goldwater-like movement.”

And then there is a practical matter, Shrum noted: Palin and her husband, with five children of their own and a new grandson, will likely never have to worry about money again.

“She could make more in two weeks on just speaking fees than in the rest of her time as governor,” said Shrum.

The move may also be pragmatic if Palin really does want to lay the groundwork for a presidential run.

“I don’t think you can do a competent job of being a governor of a state next door to Russia and run seriously for president of the United States,” said Charlie Cook. “It’s hard enough to do one of those two, let alone both. While Bill Clinton ran while being governor of Arkansas and George W. Bush as governor of Texas, Little Rock and Austin are not that far by Cessna Citation or Gulfstream from New Hampshire or Florida or California.”

And, Cook noted, there is little political upside to being a governor during difficult economic times, when the options usually range from tax or fee increases to budget cuts.

“Bailing out early may avoid making some of those tough decisions,” said Cook.

William Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard and an outspoken Palin defender, acknowledged Palin’s move was “an enormous gamble” but said it could prove smart.

“Now she can do her book, give speeches, travel the country and the world, campaign for others, meet people, get more educated on the issues–and without being criticized for neglecting her duties in Alaska,” said Kristol.

Stapleton cited issues Palin was passionate about – energy, national security and free enterprise – but indicated that the governor was being vague about what she planned to do next for a reason.

“Those blanks need to be filled in,” said Stapleton when asked specifically what Palin planned after turning her office over to Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

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Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin plans to remain extremely visible and will give serious consideration to running for president in 2012, but has made no decision, a close friend said after her startling announcement Friday that she will resign her office.

Friends say Palin plans to spend time writing her book, which is due this fall, then promote it heavily when it comes out in spring 2010.

Palin is by far the Republican Party’s biggest draw for fund-raisers and conservative events, and the friends say she plans to spend a lot of time traveling in "the lower 48" states, as Alaskans call the continental U.S.

Those friends say she plans to give a series of paid speeches, and will also make free GOP appearances, raising money for the party and for issues. She also plans to help other candidates, collecting political IOUs for herself.

And she’ll be very busy as a mother of five, which friends say is her top priority.

Palin had been considering for months whether to run for reelection and had concluded long ago that in order to be fair to other candidates, she needed to decide by this summer. The idea of resigning outright only came up in the last few weeks, the friends said, adding that she believes she would win if she ran again.

Friends said Palin brushes off hostile news coverage but feels that the ethics complaints in Alaska – accompanied by attacks in the legislature, and the relentless pounding she was taking at home – were taking a toll on her family and her state. So she believes the decision was selfless, the friends said.

However, she may be hurt by her announcement on Friday, where she apparently spoke without notes.

"She has never been able to deliver a succinct message and this one was all over the place when this really needed to be her one of her best performances," a Republican congressional official said.

"While it is absolutely true that people in Alaska were trying to tear her down with false charges, it doesn’t look good that when she was faced with adversity and attacks on her character that she threw in the towel. … She needed to go away for a while and bone up on issues. Truly bewildering."

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Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin announced Friday that she was resigning her office later this month, a stunning decision that could free her to run for president more easily but also raises questions about her political standing at home.

Palin disclosed the surprise news Friday afternoon from her home in Wasilla with her husband, Todd, and Lt. Governor Sean Parnell, who the governor said would take over the state on Saturday, July 25th.

By not running for re-election, Palin liberates herself from the political constraints that come with running for president while still in elected office.

Leaving office at the end of the month, the former vice presidential hopeful will be able to travel the country more freely without facing the sort of repeated ethics inquiries she’s been fending off since returning to Alaska earlier this year.

Palin has been dogged by a series of ethical complaints, many of which her allies consider as frivolous, and has had to set up a legal defense fund to pay her bills.

Just this week, the Anchorage Daily News reported that these complaints against her administration had reached almost $300,000, much of that sum owing to the so-called “Troopergate” probe of Palin.

Beyond ethical questions, Palin has continued to face other difficulties since her return to Alaska.

Legislators of both parties have complained about some of her time away from the state capitol and Palin has had to grapple with a series of tabloid-type stories relating to her family.

But Palin retains a strong following among many conservatives who were electrified when she was tapped to serve on the GOP ticket by Sen. John McCain last year. She drew thousands of people to a small-town festival in upstate New York last month , some of whom drove a considerable distance just to catch a glimpse of Palin.

Palin allies contend that her star power will still benefit her home state.

“She can be more of a help to Alaska from the outside now,” said one Palin loyalist.

But the decision to suddenly quit her post will also reinforce some of the very questions about Palin that were raised in the lengthy Vanity Fair story this week – whether she’s overly erratic and prone to ignore her own political advisers.

Two of own GOP allies were told this week that Palin would announce that she was definitely not running for re-election, but the move to outright leave office has caught many of her supporters by surprise.

Palin’s office announced Friday morning that she would make an “announcement’ at her home in the afternoon but said nothing more until the governor stood alongside Parnell and her cabinet at her lakefront home in Wasilla.

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After four days in Colorado for the Aspen Ideas Festival, it’s time to return back to the East Coast, where intellectual conferences aren’t fueled by, say, endless amounts of pomegranate juice. But before we go, time to catch you up on some highlights from Thursday:

New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman tells the crowd that Michael Jackson’s death put an end to the U.S.’s Twitter interest in the situation in Iran.

Atlantic Media’s David Bradley jokes that a morning session: "Hiking the Aspen Trail with Gov. Sanford" has been canceled. Bradley also ribs Michael Chertoff about having trouble getting through TSA with his cast.

Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright clarifies three things: "Europe spends too much time examining itself; " "Pakistan is everything that gives you an international migraine;"
"Poor people are not stupid." Albright also says she’d prefer to use "national security support" instead of "foreign assistance."

One-time "West Wing" star Anna Deveare Smith talks about artist Chuck Close:

Comedy Central’s Lewis Black says that the best thing about Obama is that he speaks in paragraphs. "To have someone who actually talks to us, is stunning. … We’ve been in a coma for eight years. Now we have a doctor rehabbing the country." Black further says that with George W. Bush out of the equation, European countries have discovered that their leader is kind of a schmuck, too. Not only that, but Bush "was the reason I was funny. Now I’m just going to go back to making hand puppets. Some days I could walk on stage, read what Bush actually said that day, and I was done." The lesson from the Bush administration, according to Black? "Don’t vote for someone because they have faith in God, unless you think God has faith in them." "Organized religion limits imagination," says Black, adding that whatever is out there is more impressive than what religion would tell you.

Black also has a message for all you Twitterers:

And finally, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell: "I know something about unlikely couples."

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Meeting with energy entrepreneurs Thursday afternoon, President Obama urged his guests to speak up on behalf of the American Clean Energy and Security bill that passed the House of Representatives last Friday.

"He asked all of us to get out and make sure this gets through the Senate," Alex Laskey, president of the Virginia-based company Positive Energy, told POLITICO. "He felt like there’s a real need for all of us who are interested in this…to tell our stories, to talk to people and lawmakers about how efficiency and renewable energy is good for the economy and good for American business and good for jobs."

Seven energy executives met with Obama Thursday, along with Energy Secretary Chu, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson, National Economic Council Director Larry Summers, Senior Adviser Valerie Jarrett and White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel.

Laskey, whose firm works with utility companies to help Americans monitor and reduce their household energy use, expressed excitement at the opportunity to work with a sympathetic president.

"To have a president who is as committed as he is to changing the way we produce and use energy in this country will have terrific implications for us," he said. "He seemed genuinely interested in what government was doing right and what government was not doing enough of, to encourage, facilitate new businesses and existing businesses to thrive in this market."

In the case of his firm, Laskey estimates that Positive Energy will reduce Americans’ energy consumption by $25 million this year, and argued that nationally "there’s the opportunity to save people four to five billion dollars on their energy bills." The exposure from Obama just might make their job a little easier.

"I don’t expect anything," Laskey said, adding: "I’m hopeful that the utilities with which we work and the utilities with which we’re speaking will take note of the president’s interest"

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ALTON, Va. – Rep. Tom Perriello relishes an energy fight with Republicans – even here in the rural southside.

The freshman lawmaker understands the potential consequences that he and other vulnerable Democrats face for backing a sweeping climate-change bill, and rather than ducking the issue, he’s embracing what may have been the toughest vote of his young political career.

“There’s got to be something more important than getting re-elected,” Perriello said in an interview with POLITICO. “If I lose my seat, and that’s the worst that happens, I could live with that.”

But the 34-year-old believes Democrats will win this fight.

“This is a gift,” Perriello said of the vote. “For the first time in a generation, we have the chance to redefine our energy economy…This is a great moment for us.”

It’s unclear whether voters in this part of Virginia, where tobacco farms are shrinking, textile mills have shut down and unemployment remains well above the national average, will embrace Perriello’s optimism about green jobs and cap and trade. Like many Democrats from Republican-leaning districts, Perriello is back home this week defending what may be a game-changing vote with consequences for 2010.

Perriello is one of the top targets in a national barrage of attack ads by the National Republican Congressional Committee, which has paid for rare off-year television ad campaign against Perriello and launched radio ads and automated phone calls against a handful of his fellow Democrats.

But Republican confidence may be a little premature.

“This is an issue that is very dependent on the overall state of the economy,” said Larry Sabato, who runs The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, in an e-mail. “If the economy continues to be bad through 2010, then voters are more likely to give credence to the GOP charges.”

However, “if the economy improves,” Sabato continued, “voters won’t find the attacks credible. Really, how is anybody – even a professional economist – to know exactly what the effect of this bill will be? It’s so entangled with the rest of the economy.”

Indeed, the legislation doesn’t even have a direct impact on the barometer most Americans use to gauge the cost of energy – the price of gasoline.

“What’s going to increase the price of energy more?” asks E. Linwood Wright, an economic development consultant with the city of Danville, Va., in Perriello’s district. “The things in this bill? Or crude oil going back to $150-a-barrel?”

In the meantime, the fight will be about jobs, jobs, jobs.

Republicans claim passage of the Clean Energy act will result in millions of jobs moving overseas to countries with much less stringent environmental standards, countries like China and India. On the flipside, Democrats will offer rosy – and well-worn – projections that its passage will usher in a new era of prosperity in which millions of so-called green jobs are created.

Of course, neither outcome is a certainty, leaving plenty of room for political posturing.

The NRCC target list included some of the most vulnerable Democrats, like Florida Rep. Alan Grayson, Colorado Rep. Betsy Markey and Ohio Reps. John Boccieri, Mary Jo Kilroy and Zach Space. But the campaign committee also went after senior Democrats, like Virginia Rep. Rick Boucher – who negotiated large portions of the bill – Science Chairman Bart Gordon (Tenn.) and Armed Services Chairman Ike Skelton (Mo.).

But outside groups are coming to the defense of key Democrats, trying to protect supporters of the bill, including some of the eight Republicans who voted for it.

The Environmental Defense Action Fund went up with television ads this week thanking Perriello and a handful of other Democrats for backing the bill. The list includes Kilroy, Frank Kratovil of Maryland and Dan Maffei of New York. The group even ran ads thanking Republicans Dave Reichert of Washington and Leonard Lance of New Jersey. And some of the spots will run for two weeks.

In addition, the White House will send the president and his cabinet secretaries out of the road to stump for fellow Democrats, bolstering them where they need it. The secretaries of energy and agriculture will both make trips to Perriello’s district to meet with his constituents, the congressman said Friday.

So Perriello, who ousted longtime Republican Rep. Virgil Goode last year by a mere 727 votes, is working to get ahead of a potential problem 18 months before voters head to the polls.

In a barn in the middle of the VIRginia International Raceway, Perriello told a collection of elected officials and local business leaders: “There are two types of communities: There are communities that are looking backwards and communities that are looking forward.”

Textile mills and tobacco farms once thrived in Virginia’s “Southside,” near the North Carolina border. But the mills have been closing for decades, and the region produces 30 percent less tobacco now than it did just a few years ago, according to John Kennedy, the director of the Institute for Advanced Learning and Research, a program run under the umbrella of Virginia Tech University.

“If we can create an industry that produces ethanol and other fuels, we can utilize all this land,” Kennedy said.

The district still has plenty of agriculture and timber, and some local farmers worry the cost of this new economy will put them out of business.

And if Periello is going to defend his vote on the climate change bill, he’ll need to explain it to folks like Carl Tinder.

“I don’t know what this means for me,” said Tinder, a small farmer who also manages a cattle farm in the northern part of the district. “It’s definitely a step in the direction I’m a little hesitant about.”

Community leaders are pooling their resources in a bid to collect grant money wherever they can in the hopes of spurring bio-fuel production or any other manufacturing jobs. At this stage, they are focused on job training.

“Employers need a trained workforce,” said Laurie Moran, president of the Danville Pittsylvania Chamber of Commerce, who has helped organize a local cooperative of government officials and business leaders to help amass public and private grant money.

“We need to support legislation that will support second generation bio-fuels,” Perriello said. “The government isn’t going to create the jobs. But it can give business the incentive to invest.”

The crowd in Alton responded well to Perriello, offering him a standing ovation before he delivered his brief remarks. But as the new congressman mingled after the speech, one attendee leaned over to another and whispered, “He cast the wrong vote.”

But after he finished, elected officials and business owners alike approached him about the prospects – or progress – of various grants and earmarks they were trying to secure through the $787 billion stimulus or through the regular appropriations process.

Republicans are hoping to undercut Perriello before he and his office get more firmly established in the region.

“Tom Perriello’s national energy tax vote was the defining moment of his short career,” NRCC spokesman Andy Seres said, adding that voters in his district who once thought of him as “that nice young man … is actually a smug globalist who cares more about his Daily Kos cred than the farmers, laborers and middle-class families in his district.”

One Roanoke station refused the run the campaign committee’s ad – which portrays Perriello as a tool of President Barack Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). But the Lynchburg, Va,, News and Advance ran a story on the front-page Friday – opposite another headline about the community receiving $700,000 in stimulus money.

Perriello complains that these attacks are just more of the same “old politics” that helped Republicans squander the White House and their majorities on Capitol Hill.

“The Republicans may win some seats because of this vote, but they can’t regain their souls for demagoguing the issue,” Perriello said.

As a candidate, Perriello broke the mold in ways, by taking Democratic stands in a decidedly Republican district. He seems to have retained that confidence coming out of the election and wants to help Obama be bold – even in south central Virginia.

“People are sick of cowardice,” Perriello said. “It’s not the easy votes, it’s the hard votes.”

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